What does India’s growth truly look like when we move past topline indicators and examine the full consumption distribution?
PIF recently convened a closed-door, high-level roundtable on the question: “What Happened to the Last Decile in the Last Decade?”
Drawing on the newly released HCES 2023–24 microdata, PIF presented original analysis revealing a profound structural shift in India’s economy. The discussion followed a peer-review format, bringing together leading policymakers, statisticians, and economists to rigorously test both the methodology and its implications.
Key insights from the study include:
- Massive poverty exit: Approximately 11.45 crore individuals—nearly 8% of India’s population—have moved above the 2011–12 extreme-deprivation floor.
- Compression of inequality: A significant rightward shift in consumption densities and a sharp decline in Gini coefficients, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, and Arunachal Pradesh.
- Inclusive growth: Evidence of an economy that is becoming both materially wealthier and measurably more equal.
The session was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Kumar (Chairperson, PIF), alongside Prof. S. Mahendra Dev (Chairman, EAC–PM) and Dr. Saurabh Garg (Secretary, MoSPI). We are grateful to the distinguished participants—including former Chief Statisticians and leading academics—for their rigorous and constructive engagement.
At PIF, we remain focused on leveraging microdata-driven insights to strengthen India’s consumption middle and inform durable policy choices.
