I was full of trepidation because of the huge expectations from the Budget. This was clearly a make or break Budget for the Modi Government as it would have lost the benefit of the doubt, which it has enjoyed until now. Moreover, the fear was that with the electoral outcome in Delhi, the Government could…
Stock investors may have to brace for turbulence this week amid indications that a victory for Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi election, strong US jobs data and a deepening crisis in the Eurozone may spark a selloff. Although an AAP win would do little to change national political equations, Dalal Street may view such…
The two-day labour strike in Coal India Ltd (CIL), called jointly by all the trade unions, including the HMS affiliated to the BJP, has thoroughly exposed the fragility of the demand-supply balance in the thermal power sector. The spectre of power shortages and blackouts loomed large and was averted at the last minute after ministerial…
The year 2015 brings with it sky-high expectations from the Modi government, which should now be poised to make the breakthroughs that will re-ignite investments and take the economy back to eight per cent GDP growth, sooner rather than later. That is the only way forward to generate the critically needed employment opportunities for India’s…
Headline inflation has been receding steadily and current readings are below the January 2015 target of 8 per cent as well as the January 2016 target of 6 per cent. “Accordingly, the central forecast for CPI inflation is revised down to 6 per cent for March 2015” … “risks to the January 2016 target of…
If Modi does visit Nepal, ahead of his first speech from the Red Fort and prior to visiting any country outside South Asia, it will mark a positive change in Indian foreign policy. But sitting in Kathmandu, I feel optimistic about the prospects for regional integration in South Asia. My optimism arises because of the…
The large CAD had increased India’s external vulnerabilities during July-September 2013, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the rupee after the US Fed’s taper talk. India not only became part of the “Fragile Five”, including Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa, all countries with large CADs, but had the dubious distinction of leading the pack…
The equity markets’ exuberance should not distract us from the sobering fact that unfortunately the economy faces several significant downside risks. These are posed by a persistent food inflation; a more generalised hike in retail inflation; the low probability of any interest rate softening; continued weakness in private investment; and the lack of fiscal space…